黄渤海底层盐度预报方法的研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王宗山  徐伯昌  孙卫阳  邹娥梅  李繁华 《海洋与湖沼》1993,24(6):592-598

根据二维流体动力学方程和深度平均盐度扩散方程在河口径流量以及蒸发和降水之差为已知情况下构成的闭合方程组,预报出深度平均盐度,然后利用底层盐度与深度平均盐度、水深和时间(月)之间的经验关系,给出底层盐度的二维预报。为了检验试报结果的可靠性,文中将黄渤海底层盐度的试报结果(1979年7月11日,时效为3d)与标准断面观测资料(7月4—14日观测,124.5°E以西,共104站)作一粗略比较。比较表明,试报结果与实测值的相关系数为0.96,均方误差为α=0.26,绝对误差小于0.2和0.3的站数分别占总站数的63.5％和77.0％,而总均绝差为0.19。由此可见,试报的效果是令人满意的。  相似文献   

Viability theory for an ecosystem approach to fisheries   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Cury  Philippe M.; Mullon  Christian; Garcia  Serge M.; Shannon  Lynne J. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2005,62(3):577-584

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Grey Prediction of Siltation in North Channel of Yangtze Estuary     

Yu Cimei Shanghai Waterways Design & Research Institute  Shanghai 《中国海洋工程》1994,(2)

-The North Channel in the Yangtze Estuary is one of sea-leading waterways of Shanghai Harbour, in which yearly dredging volume reaches over ten million cubic meters, and it tends to increase year by year. Based on the channel regime similarity and through the relational grade, a GM (2, 1) is set up. It reveals the course of development of channel regime similarity under the action of various factors, and predicts the siltation volume in the nearest future which is the basis of dredging planning for relevant dredging departments.  相似文献   

Prediction of Load Carrying Capacity of Corroded Reinforced Concrete Beam     

范颖芳  周晶冯新 《中国海洋工程》2004,18(1):107-118

A novel method for prediction of the load carrying capacity of a corroded reinforced concrete beam (CRCB) is presented in the paper. Nine reinforced concrete beams, which had been working in an aggressive environment for more than 10 years, were tested in the laboratory. Comprehensive tests, including flexural test, strength test for corroded concrete and rusty rebar, and pullout test for bond strength between concrete and rebar, were condueted. The flexural test results of CRCBs reveal that the distribution of surface cracks on the beams shows a fractal behavior. The relationship between the fractal dimensions and mechanical properties of CRCBs is then studied. A prediction model based on artificial neural network (ANN) is established by the use of the fractal dimension as the corrosion index, together with the basic intbrmation of the beam. The validity of the prediction model is demonstrated through the experimental data, and satisfactory resuits are achieved.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variability of heat content above the thermocline in the tropical Pacific Ocean   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Pu Shuzhen  Yu Fei  Hu Xiaomin  Chen Xingrong 《海洋学报(英文版)》2003,22(2):179-190

Abstract-Heat content of the upper layer above the 20℃ isotherm in the tropical Pacific Ocean isestimated by using the sea temperature data set with a resolution 2°latitude×5°longitude (1980～1993)for the water depths (every 10 m) from 0 m to 400 m, and its temporal and spatial variabilities are an-alyzed. (1) The temporal variability indicates that the total heat in the upper layer of the equatorial Pa-cific Ocean is charcterized by the interannual variability. The time series of the equatorial heat anomaly5 months lead that of the El Nino index at the best positive lag correlation between the two, and theformer 13 months lag behind the latter at their best negative lag correlation. Therefore the equatorialheat content can be used as a better predictor than the El Nino index for a warm or cold event. In addi-tion, it is also found that less heat anomaly in the equator corresponds to the stronger warm events inthe period (1980～1993) and much more heat was accumulated in the 4 years including 1992/1  相似文献   

台风移速突变的诊断分析及路径预报     

仲荣根 《海洋湖沼通报》1994,(2):149-154

本文利用台风移动方程对作用在台风上的各力进行了诊断分析：主要力是气压梯度力和地转偏向力，二者同量级，其他各力约小１－３个量级；当台风加速移动时，气压梯度力小于地转编向力；减速移动时，气压梯度力大于地转偏向力。用预报方程计算得到的台风路径与实际台风路径在趋势上近于一致，预报误差约为２００ｋｍ。  相似文献   

沉降监测多项式回归分析与神经网络预测     

田丰  文鸿雁  张静 《海洋测绘》2007,27(4):23-27

使用多项式和切比雪夫(Tchebyshev)多项式分别对沉降监测数据进行回归分析以预测未来沉降值,其中切比雪夫多项式的外推效果较好;应用前向BP神经网络对两种不同的单因子输入模式进行非线性函数逼近,并进行了不同采样步长的比较,实例表明将时间点作为网络的输入对沉降进行预测效果较好。  相似文献   

Responses of carbon dioxide in western tropical Pacific to 1991~1993 ENSO event     

Ma Liming 《海洋学报(英文版)》1997,16(2):201-214

On the basis of the data of the partial pressure of CO₂ (P_CO2)and the concentration of the total dissolved CO₂(T_CO2) in surface water during the expeditions in Nov.-Dec. 1991, the world ocean circulation experiment (WOCE) and Oct. 1992-Mar. 1993, the tropical ocean-global atmosphere coupled ocean-atmosphere response experiment (TOGA COARE) in the western tropical Pacific and of the comparison with data from 1986 to 1990 TOGA expeditions and that from Japan Meteorological Agency, the response of CO₂ in surface water to ENSO event is proved. The CO₂ signals indicated that the air-sea system in the western and central tropical Pacific from 1991 to 1993, except for a short period in autumn of 1992, was in a strong state of ENSO.
The change of CO₂ in the floating stations near 2°S, 155°E from Nov. 1992 to Mar. 1993 reflected the change of currents, water mass and its thermal and salt content during the forming and developing of ENSO.  相似文献   

ENSO对天目山柳杉树轮同位素的影响   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

陈宝君  钱君龙  濮培民 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2002,22(4):53-58

在Nin↑～o3,4区SST序列和Jones等的SOI序列基础上，通过主分量分析方法建立了一个ENSO指数序列。并与根据天目山柳杉树轮碳，氢同位素组成比所建立的树轮指数序列进行相关分析。结果表明，天目山树轮指数与ENSO指数有很好的相关性，尤其与前2年的ENSO指数相关显著。说明ENSO对该地区树木的生长和同位素的分馏有影响，也说明天目山地区的树木年轮对于ENSO事件具有一定的记录能力。  相似文献   

基于模糊神经网络(FNN)的赤潮预警预测研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张容  阎红  杜丽萍 《海洋通报(英文版)》2006,8(1):83-91

为研究各种理化因子与赤潮藻类浓度间的非线性对应规律和有效预测赤潮藻类浓度,构建了基于BP 算法的一个四层模糊神经网络模型。将模糊神经网络(FNN)技术引入赤潮预测研究,并与普通 BP 网络、RBF 网络的结果作比较,结果表明,该模型能够较好地反演出各种理化因子与夜光藻密度的非线性对应变化规律,有更好的预测功能。  相似文献